{"question":"will_be_reverted","outcome":"tagged mw-reverted by Wikipedia within 24 h","question_version":4,"calibration":"v4-2026-09-23","window_days":3,"live_total":0,"computed_at":"2026-09-24T00:00:30.872Z","source":"backtest","total":5583,"backtest":{"edits":5583,"reverted":270,"dates":"2026-09-22/23","held_out":"5-fold"},"raw":[{"lo":0,"hi":0.1,"n":1178,"predicted":0.0704,"observed":0.011,"ci":[0.0065,0.0188]},{"lo":0.1,"hi":0.2,"n":1879,"predicted":0.1431,"observed":0.0149,"ci":[0.0103,0.0215]},{"lo":0.2,"hi":0.3,"n":1314,"predicted":0.2407,"observed":0.0434,"ci":[0.0336,0.0558]},{"lo":0.3,"hi":0.4,"n":606,"predicted":0.3408,"observed":0.0627,"ci":[0.046,0.0849]},{"lo":0.4,"hi":0.5,"n":333,"predicted":0.44,"observed":0.0961,"ci":[0.0689,0.1325]},{"lo":0.5,"hi":0.6,"n":136,"predicted":0.5405,"observed":0.2059,"ci":[0.1465,0.2815]},{"lo":0.6,"hi":0.7,"n":64,"predicted":0.6386,"observed":0.3281,"ci":[0.2257,0.45]},{"lo":0.7,"hi":0.8,"n":30,"predicted":0.7403,"observed":0.5,"ci":[0.3315,0.6685]},{"lo":0.8,"hi":0.9,"n":32,"predicted":0.8481,"observed":0.8438,"ci":[0.6825,0.9314]},{"lo":0.9,"hi":1,"n":11,"predicted":0.9227,"observed":1,"ci":[0.7412,1]}],"calibrated":[{"lo":0,"hi":0.02,"n":2261,"predicted":0.0131,"observed":0.0119,"ci":[0.0082,0.0173]},{"lo":0.02,"hi":0.04,"n":1726,"predicted":0.0285,"observed":0.0336,"ci":[0.0261,0.0432]},{"lo":0.04,"hi":0.06,"n":618,"predicted":0.0482,"observed":0.0372,"ci":[0.0249,0.0552]},{"lo":0.06,"hi":0.1,"n":488,"predicted":0.0763,"observed":0.0758,"ci":[0.0555,0.1028]},{"lo":0.1,"hi":0.15,"n":210,"predicted":0.1206,"observed":0.1143,"ci":[0.078,0.1644]},{"lo":0.15,"hi":0.25,"n":138,"predicted":0.1865,"observed":0.1884,"ci":[0.1319,0.2617]},{"lo":0.25,"hi":0.4,"n":65,"predicted":0.311,"observed":0.3385,"ci":[0.2353,0.4596]},{"lo":0.4,"hi":0.6,"n":26,"predicted":0.4856,"observed":0.4231,"ci":[0.2554,0.6105]},{"lo":0.6,"hi":0.8,"n":20,"predicted":0.6947,"observed":0.7,"ci":[0.481,0.8545]},{"lo":0.8,"hi":1,"n":31,"predicted":0.8988,"observed":0.9032,"ci":[0.751,0.9665]}],"bins":[{"lo":0,"hi":0.02,"n":2261,"predicted":0.0131,"observed":0.0119,"ci":[0.0082,0.0173]},{"lo":0.02,"hi":0.04,"n":1726,"predicted":0.0285,"observed":0.0336,"ci":[0.0261,0.0432]},{"lo":0.04,"hi":0.06,"n":618,"predicted":0.0482,"observed":0.0372,"ci":[0.0249,0.0552]},{"lo":0.06,"hi":0.1,"n":488,"predicted":0.0763,"observed":0.0758,"ci":[0.0555,0.1028]},{"lo":0.1,"hi":0.15,"n":210,"predicted":0.1206,"observed":0.1143,"ci":[0.078,0.1644]},{"lo":0.15,"hi":0.25,"n":138,"predicted":0.1865,"observed":0.1884,"ci":[0.1319,0.2617]},{"lo":0.25,"hi":0.4,"n":65,"predicted":0.311,"observed":0.3385,"ci":[0.2353,0.4596]},{"lo":0.4,"hi":0.6,"n":26,"predicted":0.4856,"observed":0.4231,"ci":[0.2554,0.6105]},{"lo":0.6,"hi":0.8,"n":20,"predicted":0.6947,"observed":0.7,"ci":[0.481,0.8545]},{"lo":0.8,"hi":1,"n":31,"predicted":0.8988,"observed":0.9032,"ci":[0.751,0.9665]}]}